The End Of History Illusion

Todd Henry [00:00:00]:

There's a story I heard about a soldier named Hiroo Onoda that I just can't get out of my mind. Onoda was a Japanese intelligence officer who was sent to the Philippine jungle in 1945, near the end of World War II. His orders were to never surrender, to never stop fighting. So he didn't. In fact, for decades, he continued guerrilla warfare in the jungle, ambushing locals, evading capture, surviving on bananas and whatever he could find. His comrades died or surrendered, but he kept going. Here's the twist. The war ended in 1945.

Todd Henry [00:00:36]:

World War II was over. Hiroo Onoda didn't stop fighting until 1974. 29 years after the conflict was over, when the Philippine government finally sent his original commanding officer, now in his 70s, into the jungle to formally relieve him of duty, he refused to quit fighting until his commanding officer relieved him of duty. He finally emerged in his tattered uniform, rifle still in hand, ready for new orders. Now listen, he, he wasn't crazy. He was loyal. He was disciplined. He was by every measure of the word doing what he'd been trained for.

Todd Henry [00:01:14]:

He was doing the exact right thing that he thought he should be doing. The problem was that the world had changed completely and no one had told him, or rather the world had told him, he just couldn't hear it because his entire identity was built around the mission that no longer existed. Now here's what strikes me about this story. Ano's problem wasn't obviously a lack of intelligence and it wasn't a lack of emotional resilience. He had both of those in abundance. His problem was something else entirely, a kind of rigidity that made it impossible to recalibrate when reality shifted underneath him. In Die Empty, I wrote about the importance of identifying the work that only you can do, what I call your essential contribution, your throughline, your productive passion. The deeper insight behind that idea is this: your contribution isn't really about the specific tasks that you perform.

Todd Henry [00:02:08]:

It's about the underlying capacity that you bring to the world, your passions, your skills, your experiences, your unique point of view. The tasks are just the current expression of something deeper. When we confuse the tasks for the contribution, we end up like a Noda in the jungle fighting a war that's already over, loyal to a version of reality that no longer exists. The question isn't what are you doing? The real question is who are you being and whether who you're being can move with you into an uncertain future. That's what we're gonna talk about today. My guest has spent years coaching founders and CEOs through exactly that kind of reckoning. She's the founder of the AQ Learning Lab, and her new book is called AQ: A New Kind of Intelligence for a World That's Always Changing. Her name is Liz Tran.

Todd Henry [00:03:02]:

And we need to go beyond IQ and EQ into a third essential intelligence called agility quotient— your capacity to handle change, disappointment, and uncertainty without losing yourself in the process. This is Daily Creative. Since 2005, we've served up weekly tips to help you be brave, focused, and brilliant every day. My name is Todd Henry. Welcome to the show.

Liz Tran [00:03:28]:

So AQ stands for your agility quotient. It is your capacity to handle change, disappointment, and uncertainty. And those three things exist in the world in far greater volumes than they did even 30 years ago, which was the advent of EQ. And then 110 years ago was when we really saw IQ come into the scene.

Todd Henry [00:03:51]:

Again, that's Liz Tran, author of the new book AQ, which stands for Agility Quotient.

Liz Tran [00:03:57]:

And when you look back at both of those two forms of intelligences, they were really a product of their time. So IQ came about because kids started going into mandatory education and you had to figure out which classrooms to put them in for kids who had never been to school before. And then the military glommed on and they said, this is great. We need a way to sort of sort people, place them by their co— quote unquote cognitive potential. The government said, we need a, a method to do this as well. And then in the 1990s, when you started to see people shift from being the owners of their work into being stewards of work in general, so moving into knowledge work, suddenly collaboration, communication, empathy became really important to the role of a manager, which never really existed before. And that's why EQ became so popular and then spread throughout schools and businesses and governments. And now I think we are— undeniably, everyone who's listening to this will agree— We're in the middle of a technology revolution and the world is changing at an exponential pace.

Liz Tran [00:05:00]:

It has been changing. I think all of us can say that since 2020 we've been exposed to a lot more uncertainty and disappointment and change than we ever have felt. And in my work with founders, creatives, I think AQ was always important, but I started noticing it become more and more important post-2020. And then even in this world now where it's not just, you know, macroeconomics and the government, it's climate events, right? It's seeing headlines in the news that you didn't expect. And all of us are actually developing our AQ as we go. We just haven't had language for it. So I felt like the time was now to write this book, to give people the language for something that they're already doing, which is that they're growing their AQ.

Todd Henry [00:05:44]:

You talk about, uh, something called the end of history illusion, this psychological fallacy. What is the end of history illusion?

Liz Tran [00:05:50]:

The end of history illusion happens to all of us at some point, whether you are young or you are old. And it's when you start to believe that you've become the most complete version of yourself. And that— this can happen when you're 16. I remember being 16 and thinking I knew everything.

Todd Henry [00:06:10]:

Of course. Yes.

Liz Tran [00:06:11]:

And you can also be 85 years old and not be not succumb to the end of history illusion. You can still be quite agile. And so for me, the opposite of agility is rigidity. And that often comes with the end of history illusion because when you believe that you are already your most developed self, then your perspective shifts and you start to read the world that way, that there isn't anything more to learn, there isn't more to grow, and you sort of lose that very pliable beginner's mindset that is so important to all of our work, especially when you're really experienced in something.

Todd Henry [00:06:47]:

It's interesting you brought up 2020 and some of the— how that feels. I don't know if it's true, but it feels like the pace of change has accelerated in the last couple of years. Maybe it's a psychological trick, but there's no question that technologically we are advancing. We're definitely at the beginning of the J-curve of technological advancement. We're just reaching that inflection point where we're feeling it, I think, for the first time. And it is interesting because societally, you see in the business world, you see it in society, you see it in politics, you see it in all of these areas where there is this kind of reaction, this rigid reaction against the change, this desire to remain rigidly in place as a reaction against all of this change. It feels almost like a psychological, almost like a protective mechanism that we're seeing. And I see it in the business world.

Todd Henry [00:07:35]:

I'm sure you do as well with leaders who just want things to be the way that they used to be. And it's like, things are never going to be the way they used to be. Like, that's just not going to happen. But we had the luxury for decades or maybe even a century, we've had the luxury of change, but relatively long arc change where you see things changing over the course of a decade, but you don't see things changing over the course of a year like we see it now. So I want to talk about what you call the four archetypes, the archetypes for handling that change, because I think it speaks to why we see so many different responses. To this change. Could you just go into those archetypes? I would love to dive into each of them and how they apply to our conversation.

Liz Tran [00:08:17]:

Absolutely. And, and you're right, just to even pause there and just to say we are experiencing more change. The concept of a career ladder is gone.

Todd Henry [00:08:29]:

You know, I think— Gone. Completely gone. Yes. Right.

Liz Tran [00:08:31]:

And I think we all know people who— maybe you're in the older generation— who had a job for 30, 40 years somewhere. No way. Gen Z is predicted to have 18 jobs. An average member of Gen Z is predicted to have 18 jobs over 6 industries in their adult lives.

Todd Henry [00:08:47]:

And— Is that crazy?

Liz Tran [00:08:48]:

It's so wild. And honestly, it's a lot, but you can see it and it's just very different. And so the archetypes are exactly as you said, there are 4 ways that people respond to change, disappointment, and uncertainty, both in really helpful ways. Terms of their strengths and their motivations, but also in ways that are their Achilles heel. And it's the articulation of that that I think can really help people notice what they're doing well in unstable environments and understand also where they might need to augment. So the first one, which I think a lot of people listening to this might, might resonate with, is called the astronaut. And the astronaut is the one that is expanding into new frontiers. And they're at the forefront of innovation.

Liz Tran [00:09:32]:

They're kind of floating away in space. A lot of creative people, a lot of founders are, are astronauts. They're dreaming of a vision of a future universe, and they're really fast at the two types of change I identify, which is reactive— things are happening to me— and proactive, which is I'm trying to better my life, trying to move things forward. They're great at both. And the downside of being an astronaut sometimes is that people just can't keep up. Or they can't understand. And so astronauts might hear a lot, can you slow down? Or can you explain that again? Or why did you— why are you changing your mind? This doesn't make any sense. I don't understand you.

Liz Tran [00:10:08]:

And actually, the— what's interesting is if you are an astronaut, the solution in the midst of change to grow your AQ is to slow down and to explain things, to take things step by step and not miss any of, you know, the details along the way. And that will actually help you become a more agile person. The opposite of the astronaut is the neurosurgeon. So think about that, being in school for 15 years, very thoughtful, detail-oriented work. Neurosurgeons are slow when it comes to both reactive and proac— proactive change, and they seem like the lowest AQ on paper, but truly they are capable of very, very high AQ because once they have decided that they want something, they will never stop until they get it. So there's that grit, that tenacity, that resilience that is also really important, even if the speed seems to be slower than an astronaut. Then we have a novelist like me. Novelists love to plan out their lives.

Liz Tran [00:11:04]:

I always have an agenda, I always have a 5-year plan, I'm always manifesting something. And the downside is that when reactive change happens, like a flight gets canceled, you know, a meeting gets dropped, a client unexpectedly quits, It's very upsetting for novelists because they didn't map it out. You know, it wasn't their— it wasn't what they wanted. It wasn't their say. And so they're great at writing a story and they're not so great when someone else is writing the story. And then lastly, the firefighter. The firefighter is great in emergency situations. That chaos that the novelist hates, the firefighter is basically like, give me more.

Liz Tran [00:11:40]:

I want more chaos. I want more emergencies because they're really good at problem solving real time. And the way that the firefighter can grow their AQ is to become more planful. Doesn't mean they need a 5, 10-year plan, but just really creating more learning loops to be intentional, reflective, step back and say, what am I learning? Because otherwise they're so adept at emergencies that they kind of maybe even create emergencies sometimes because they feel very useful in those situations. So I love the archetypes because you might spot yourself in one or two of them. And just knowing that you already have very impressive skills for dealing with this unstable world, and that it's very easy also to develop the self-awareness to know when you're using, you know, some of your weaknesses in the wrong places as well.

Todd Henry [00:12:26]:

I'm sure that many people listening probably see themselves in any number of those archetypes, but I do wanna focus in on the astronaut because I do— I think you're right. There are probably people who are drawn to this podcast, probably are people who like to go out into space and explore and often don't understand why there aren't people behind them. Why are there not more firefighters following me into space right now? So what are some practical ways that maybe we can prevent some of the worst tendencies? Cause those— the astronaut tendency, that archetype is very needed, right? We need people who are willing to pull us and push us into those spaces. But as you mentioned, sometimes we get ahead of ourselves. What are some practical ways that we can maybe slow down and make sure people are coming along with us when we're trying to inspire change or create change?

Liz Tran [00:13:16]:

Yes. And you're right, we do need astronauts more than ever because the problems are— of our future are not going to be solved with the solutions of the past. So we need people who are very willing and excited by coming up with new, to solve the new, and not just rely on an old blueprint. And that's very much the astronaut. I have 3 tips for astronauts. The first one is called giving turn signals, and this is a communication tool. If you're an astronaut, you might see the vision so clearly in your mind and get so frustrated because other people don't see it, but they will. You just need to walk them step by step through that process of your thinking that To you, it's like immediate, right? You see X plus Y equals Z, obvious, but people need to know this is what X looks like.

Liz Tran [00:14:06]:

This is how I combined it with Y. This is what happens when you put them together. This is the natural place that my brain went. These are some experiences I had that made me think about this. These are some clients or situations I've been in that have inspired me to come up with a solution. And I used to work in venture capital and— my boss was one of the most impressive investors of our generation. He was an early investor in Instagram. He, you know, is an investor now in OpenAI.

Liz Tran [00:14:35]:

I mean, he was just great. He was sort of ahead of his time and he would get so frustrated because people didn't understand him. And I would always say, they don't understand you, it's because you're not taking them along on the ride. So that's the number one tip for the astronaut. It's like, put the person in the car and don't just drive them there blindfolded. Give them turn signals and explain, This is why we're turning right. This is why we're turning left. Because then you will have the most loyal people to help you on your mission, but they just need to understand it.

Liz Tran [00:15:01]:

The second thing I will mention is that to understand an astronaut is to understand that they're motivated by passion. It's really hard to get them to do something that they're not excited about. For better or for worse, right? And if you're an astronaut, there's— that is such a gift, but there's a little bit of that that you have to overcome. To find the beauty in the minutiae and the things that are a little bit more boring to do and the things that we just have to do sometimes. Of course you wanna be in your zone of genius, but if you're— as long as you're not, you know, in your zone of genius less than I would say 70% of the time, it's okay to get into the minutiae. You have to get that done because it's sort of that practical stuff, the detritus of life that actually moves innovation along. You know, you got to roll up your sleeves and no job too big, no job too small for the astronaut. And then finally, the third thing that I will say, if you're an astronaut, is that your skill is going to be in gathering people around you.

Liz Tran [00:16:00]:

And so get to know the people in your life who are going to be really helpful fulcrums for what you need to do and understand their archetypes. Know if they're a novelist, know if they're a firefighter, know if they're a neurosurgeon. And understand that their perspective could also be valuable too. Astronauts often think, you know, I wanna do it all myself. I wanna be the creator of this. But, you know, I was just actually just listening to your latest episode and thinking about how so much of creativity happens in community. And I think especially so in community with people who see the world differently than you. What that differentiation comes down to is identity.

Liz Tran [00:16:35]:

So how are you describing yourself, styling yourself, and seeing your value in the world? Is it through your technical skills, which are generally associated to a specific job, right? So, a technical skill closely maps to a role that you have. Graphic design, computer science, financial— being a financial analyst, even writing, being an author, right? Or being a podcast host. You would never see an accountant using podcasting skills in their day-to-day job, right? Those aren't transferable. You wouldn't see someone who's, you know, a really talented marketer applying that job to a, you know, graphic design role. And while those skills are, are really important, technical skills are important to hone, you have to realize that the average half-life of a technical skill is only 5 years now. And in tech industries, the average half-life is 2.5 years. So whatever technical skill you're getting really, really good at, it's probably not going to be— As handy, in 5 years it'll be gone. And so we're constantly needing to refresh.

Liz Tran [00:17:36]:

And if we start to over-identify with our technical skills, then we're gonna feel bad about ourselves when that half-life comes up and it's not as useful. And this whole idea of AQ is about helping people remember that they are agile. We were meant for this. We used to wander the plains as, as hunter-gatherers. We didn't know where our next meal was gonna come from. We didn't know where we were gonna sleep. This is our birthright, but we've just forgotten it because we spend 98% of our lives in temperature-controlled environments. And we had this idea of a corporate career ladder that dominated, you know, our thinking on the Western world for 100 years, right? That's how we grew up, that's how our parents grew up.

Liz Tran [00:18:14]:

And so what we need to do now is our identity needs to be in our durable skills, which can go from job to job. So it's things like s— asking for feedback, communication, It's about solving problems that are ambiguous. It's about presenting well. So you might ask someone who has, you know, been a visual artist for quite a long time, they're looking to move into something else. What do you do? I take the history of the past and I turn it into something that people can use in the future, right? So understanding what your true raison d'être to be here on this planet is that is unrelated to that technical thing that you do. And of course you're— we're gonna be required to gain them and lose them all the time. But the secret is actually seeing yourself as having a lot more power than those technical skills, especially when they disappear.

Todd Henry [00:19:05]:

Liz Tran's new book is called AQ, and it's available now wherever books are sold. And if you want to hear our full interview, you can do so at dailycreativeplus.com. Just enter your name and email address and we'll send you a feed where you can listen to all of our interviews absolutely free. Hiroo Onoda spent 29 years fighting a war that was already over, not because he lacked the intelligence or grit, but because he'd never developed the capacity to read the changing world and adjust. That's the quiet danger that Liz is pointing to in AQ. It's not that we're not smart enough or not resilient enough. It's that we haven't had language for this third thing, the ability to stay pliable, to hold our identity and our durable skills rather than our technical ones, and to keep moving when the ground shifts beneath us. As I've written about many times, the most dangerous place to do your work is in the safety of your own comfort zone.

Todd Henry [00:19:53]:

The cost of playing it safe is often invisible. You don't see what you've failed to become. AQ, as Liz describes it, is about making that cost visible and then doing something about it. Hey, thanks so much for listening. Again, if you'd like our full interviews, you can find them at dailycreativeplus.com. Just enter your name and email address. We'll send you a feed, your own private feed, to listen to all of the interviews for free. And if you'd like to know more about my work, you can find it at toddhenry.com.

Todd Henry [00:20:24]:

That includes my books and my speaking events. Until next time, may you be brave, focused, and brilliant. We'll see you then.